HKJC Horse Racing — Prediction Dashboard

2017 validation set (818 races, 9,997 horse-rows). Generated by build_html_report.py.

Data & Model Inventory

Asset	Size	Description
SQLite hkjc.db	72.5 MB	races 32,696 / performances 273,993 / sectionals 113,559
features_2008_2018.parquet	4.1 MB	101,315 rows × 104 cols (modeling table)
real_morning_odds.parquet	48 KB	14,874 rows / 1,510 races (2016-2018, real morning line)
morning_odds.parquet	85 KB	18,558 rows = real + synth (full 2008-2018 coverage)
late_odds.parquet	40 KB	18,485 rows / 1,509 races (last pre-race capture)
jra_features.parquet	19 MB	Japan Racing Association — alternative dataset
LightGBM with-odds	362 KB	val AUC 0.78, Top-1 hit 28%
LightGBM no-odds	308 KB	val AUC 0.68, Top-1 hit 23%
XGBoost with-odds	2.2 MB	val AUC pending, see reports/feature_importance_xgb.csv
XGBoost no-odds	294 KB	val AUC pending
LightGBM morning synth	187 KB	RMSE 42.3 on log(odds), 12k val samples
JRA LightGBM no-odds	1.6 MB	JRA-trained model

Asset

Size

Description

SQLite hkjc.db

72.5 MB

races 32,696 / performances 273,993 / sectionals 113,559

features_2008_2018.parquet

4.1 MB

101,315 rows × 104 cols (modeling table)

real_morning_odds.parquet

48 KB

14,874 rows / 1,510 races (2016-2018, real morning line)

morning_odds.parquet

85 KB

18,558 rows = real + synth (full 2008-2018 coverage)

late_odds.parquet

40 KB

18,485 rows / 1,509 races (last pre-race capture)

jra_features.parquet

19 MB

Japan Racing Association — alternative dataset

LightGBM with-odds

362 KB

val AUC 0.78, Top-1 hit 28%

LightGBM no-odds

308 KB

val AUC 0.68, Top-1 hit 23%

XGBoost with-odds

2.2 MB

val AUC pending, see reports/feature_importance_xgb.csv

XGBoost no-odds

294 KB

val AUC pending

LightGBM morning synth

187 KB

RMSE 42.3 on log(odds), 12k val samples

JRA LightGBM no-odds

1.6 MB

JRA-trained model

Benter Blend — Win & Quinella (2017 val, 818 races)

blend_score = fund_prob^w × public_prob^(1-w). Pure-fundamental (w=1.0) dominates quinella ROI; weight ~0.4 helps Win top-1 because public odds filter out longshots.

Best Win top-1

model	public_source	model_weight	win_bets	win_wins	win_strike	win_return	win_roi_pct	quinella_bets	quinella_wins	quinella_strike	quinella_return	quinella_roi_pct
xgb_no_odds	final	0.4000	817	248	0.3035	693.20	-15.1530	817	100	0.1224	655.80	-19.7307
lgb_no_odds	final	0.7000	817	221	0.2705	689.80	-15.5692	817	85	0.1040	725.40	-11.2118
lgb_no_odds	final	0.5000	817	234	0.2864	684.80	-16.1812	817	85	0.1040	610.00	-25.3366
lgb_no_odds	final	0.3000	817	243	0.2974	682.80	-16.4259	817	93	0.1138	589.60	-27.8335
lgb_no_odds	final	0.6000	817	228	0.2791	678.10	-17.0012	817	91	0.1114	702.00	-14.0759
lgb_no_odds	final	0.2000	817	243	0.2974	676.20	-17.2338	817	99	0.1212	633.95	-22.4051
xgb_no_odds	final	0.7000	817	232	0.2840	675.30	-17.3439	817	91	0.1114	670.40	-17.9437
xgb_no_odds	final	0.5000	817	241	0.2950	674.30	-17.4663	817	101	0.1236	677.55	-17.0685

Best Quinella top-2 box

model	public_source	model_weight	win_bets	win_wins	win_strike	win_return	win_roi_pct	quinella_bets	quinella_wins	quinella_strike	quinella_return	quinella_roi_pct
lgb_no_odds	real_morning	1.0000	817	186	0.2277	664.10	-18.7148	817	69	0.0845	881.55	7.9009
lgb_no_odds	final	1.0000	817	186	0.2277	664.10	-18.7148	817	69	0.0845	881.55	7.9009
lgb_no_odds	real_morning	0.1000	817	156	0.1909	561.30	-31.2974	809	65	0.0803	789.80	-2.3733
ensemble_no_odds	real_morning	0.0000	817	146	0.1787	541.50	-33.7209	809	62	0.0766	785.75	-2.8739
xgb_no_odds	real_morning	0.0000	817	146	0.1787	541.50	-33.7209	809	62	0.0766	785.75	-2.8739
lgb_no_odds	real_morning	0.0000	817	146	0.1787	541.50	-33.7209	809	62	0.0766	785.75	-2.8739
xgb_no_odds	real_morning	0.1000	817	152	0.1860	553.10	-32.3011	809	64	0.0791	781.90	-3.3498
ensemble_no_odds	real_morning	0.1000	817	153	0.1873	557.00	-31.8237	809	64	0.0791	781.90	-3.3498

Exotic Bet Strategies (2017 val, 818 races)

Per-strategy, per-model ROI on Place / Quinella / QPL / Tierce / Quartet pools using final dividends. Quinella top-2 box (lgb_no_odds) is the only strategy with positive ROI across the board.

model	strategy	bets	wins	strike_rate	total_stake	total_return	net_profit	roi_pct
xgb_with_odds	place_top1	817	485	0.5936	817.00	692.62	-124.38	-15.2240
ensemble_with_odds	place_top1	817	475	0.5814	817.00	669.12	-147.88	-18.1004
ensemble_no_odds	place_top1	817	408	0.4994	817.00	664.32	-152.68	-18.6879
lgb_with_odds	place_top1	817	470	0.5753	817.00	663.42	-153.58	-18.7980
xgb_no_odds	place_top1	817	403	0.4933	817.00	660.92	-156.08	-19.1040
lgb_no_odds	place_top1	817	401	0.4908	817.00	660.17	-156.83	-19.1958
ensemble_no_odds	place_top2_each	1634	760	0.4651	1634.00	1448.84	-185.16	-11.3317
xgb_no_odds	place_top2_each	1634	759	0.4645	1634.00	1435.10	-198.90	-12.1726
lgb_with_odds	place_top2_each	1634	896	0.5483	1634.00	1415.97	-218.03	-13.3433
lgb_no_odds	place_top2_each	1634	734	0.4492	1634.00	1406.48	-227.52	-13.9241
xgb_with_odds	place_top2_each	1634	864	0.5288	1634.00	1371.07	-262.93	-16.0912
ensemble_with_odds	place_top2_each	1634	873	0.5343	1634.00	1371.07	-262.93	-16.0912
xgb_no_odds	place_top3_each	2451	1033	0.4215	2451.00	2119.42	-331.58	-13.5284
lgb_with_odds	place_top3_each	2451	1213	0.4949	2451.00	2118.88	-332.12	-13.5504
ensemble_no_odds	place_top3_each	2451	1025	0.4182	2451.00	2101.31	-349.69	-14.2672
lgb_no_odds	place_top3_each	2451	994	0.4055	2451.00	2047.95	-403.05	-16.4443
xgb_with_odds	place_top3_each	2451	1154	0.4708	2451.00	2035.58	-415.42	-16.9490
ensemble_with_odds	place_top3_each	2451	1166	0.4757	2451.00	2026.48	-424.52	-17.3203
xgb_no_odds	qpl_top2	817	162	0.1983	817.00	792.00	-25.0000	-3.0600
ensemble_no_odds	qpl_top2	817	158	0.1934	817.00	769.00	-48.0000	-5.8752
lgb_no_odds	qpl_top2	817	144	0.1763	817.00	718.50	-98.5000	-12.0563
lgb_with_odds	qpl_top2	817	209	0.2558	817.00	690.20	-126.80	-15.5202
xgb_with_odds	qpl_top2	817	199	0.2436	817.00	672.55	-144.45	-17.6805
ensemble_with_odds	qpl_top2	817	200	0.2448	817.00	652.90	-164.10	-20.0857
lgb_with_odds	qpl_top3_box	2451	483	0.1971	2451.00	2138.75	-312.25	-12.7397
lgb_no_odds	qpl_top3_box	2451	346	0.1412	2451.00	2117.75	-333.25	-13.5965
xgb_no_odds	qpl_top3_box	2451	361	0.1473	2451.00	2102.30	-348.70	-14.2268
ensemble_no_odds	qpl_top3_box	2451	362	0.1477	2451.00	2064.50	-386.50	-15.7691
xgb_with_odds	qpl_top3_box	2451	440	0.1795	2451.00	1945.70	-505.30	-20.6161
ensemble_with_odds	qpl_top3_box	2451	445	0.1816	2451.00	1903.20	-547.80	-22.3501
xgb_with_odds	quartet_top4_exact	817	1	0.0012	817.00	309.90	-507.10	-62.0685
ensemble_with_odds	quartet_top4_exact	817	1	0.0012	817.00	309.90	-507.10	-62.0685
ensemble_no_odds	quartet_top4_exact	817	1	0.0012	817.00	275.70	-541.30	-66.2546
lgb_with_odds	quartet_top4_exact	817	1	0.0012	817.00	25.8000	-791.20	-96.8421
lgb_no_odds	quartet_top4_exact	817	0	0.0000	817.00	0.0000	-817.00	-100.00
xgb_no_odds	quartet_top4_exact	817	0	0.0000	817.00	0.0000	-817.00	-100.00
lgb_no_odds	quinella_top2_box	817	69	0.0845	817.00	881.55	64.5500	7.9009
xgb_no_odds	quinella_top2_box	817	66	0.0808	817.00	763.65	-53.3500	-6.5300
ensemble_no_odds	quinella_top2_box	817	66	0.0808	817.00	757.20	-59.8000	-7.3195
lgb_with_odds	quinella_top2_box	817	103	0.1261	817.00	735.45	-81.5500	-9.9816
ensemble_with_odds	quinella_top2_box	817	100	0.1224	817.00	717.60	-99.4000	-12.1665
xgb_with_odds	quinella_top2_box	817	97	0.1187	817.00	709.00	-108.00	-13.2191
xgb_no_odds	tierce_top3_exact	817	4	0.0049	817.00	789.60	-27.4000	-3.3537
lgb_no_odds	tierce_top3_exact	817	9	0.0110	817.00	699.70	-117.30	-14.3574
xgb_with_odds	tierce_top3_exact	817	8	0.0098	817.00	572.10	-244.90	-29.9755
lgb_with_odds	tierce_top3_exact	817	8	0.0098	817.00	385.30	-431.70	-52.8397
ensemble_no_odds	tierce_top3_exact	817	3	0.0037	817.00	241.80	-575.20	-70.4039
ensemble_with_odds	tierce_top3_exact	817	5	0.0061	817.00	207.60	-609.40	-74.5900

Quinella Filter Grid (2017 val)

Filter on max-of-top-2 odds/morning_odds/rank. Cold fields (high odds, low rank) carry the model's edge; hot fields dilute it. The single best live filter is max_odds >= 12.

filter	bets	wins	strike_rate	total_return	net_profit	roi_pct	avg_return_win
actual_payout_50_1000000	1	1	1.0000	60.5500	59.5500	5955.00	60.5500
actual_payout_20_50	12	12	1.0000	355.95	343.95	2866.25	29.6625
actual_payout_10_20	15	15	1.0000	216.40	201.40	1342.67	14.4267
actual_payout_5_10	26	26	1.0000	188.50	162.50	625.00	7.2500
max_odds_12_99	240	15	0.0625	390.30	150.30	62.6250	26.0200
max_morning_odds_12_99	302	23	0.0762	415.85	113.85	37.6987	18.0804
max_rank_4_99	467	29	0.0621	623.30	156.30	33.4690	21.4931
max_rank_6_99	244	11	0.0451	323.85	79.8500	32.7254	29.4409
max_odds_8_99	433	26	0.0600	557.15	124.15	28.6721	21.4288
max_morning_odds_8_99	429	35	0.0816	515.30	86.3000	20.1166	14.7229
pred_sum_top_75%	613	63	0.1028	721.60	108.60	17.7162	11.4540
pred_sum_top_50%	409	46	0.1125	448.90	39.9000	9.7555	9.7587
all	817	69	0.0845	881.55	64.5500	7.9009	12.7761
max_odds_0_5	152	29	0.1908	161.60	9.6000	6.3158	5.5724
pred_sum_top_25%	205	25	0.1220	212.40	7.4000	3.6098	8.4960

Quinella Out-of-Sample (2018 H1)

Same lgb_no_odds model retrained 2014-2017, evaluated on 2018 H1. Used to confirm the 2017 in-sample signal isn't pure overfit.

filter	bets	wins	strike_rate	total_return	net_profit	roi_pct
all	452	40	0.0885	463.60	11.6000	2.5664
max_morning_odds_gte_8	265	18	0.0679	260.80	-4.2000	-1.5849
max_morning_odds_gte_12	168	9	0.0536	151.10	-16.9000	-10.0595
max_final_odds_gte_8	218	10	0.0459	227.20	9.2000	4.2202
max_final_odds_gte_12	119	4	0.0336	117.55	-1.4500	-1.2185

Kelly Betting Simulation (2017 val)

Each (model × odds-source × strategy) combination tested. real_morning_odds uses earliest non-999 capture from live_odds.csv.gz. Strike rate 27% in real_morning scenario (vs 22% with final_odds) is the strongest signal that the model has real pre-race edge.

scenario	strategy	n_bets	n_wins	strike_rate	roi_on_stake_pct	ending_bankroll	ruined
with_odds_model_final_odds_payout	flat_1pct_top1	228	50	0.2193	-26.7700	5772.79	False
with_odds_model_final_odds_payout	flat_2pct_top1	228	50	0.2193	-30.6800	3164.63	False
with_odds_model_final_odds_payout	kelly_quarter_top1	228	50	0.2193	-20.4600	6417.37	False
with_odds_model_final_odds_payout	kelly_quarter_top1_5pp	66	14	0.2121	-20.9100	7605.07	False
with_odds_model_final_odds_payout	kelly_quarter_top1_10pp	16	3	0.1875	-26.1400	9223.22	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_clean	flat_1pct_top1	14	3	0.2143	-33.2700	9538.60	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_clean	flat_2pct_top1	14	3	0.2143	-33.6500	9076.19	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_clean	kelly_quarter_top1	14	3	0.2143	-39.5500	9213.08	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_clean	kelly_quarter_top1_5pp	6	2	0.3333	4.6200	10054.91	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_clean	kelly_quarter_top1_10pp	2	1	0.5000	70.7300	10290.00	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_size_pay_at_final	flat_1pct_top1	14	3	0.2143	-33.2700	9538.60	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_size_pay_at_final	flat_2pct_top1	14	3	0.2143	-33.6500	9076.19	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_size_pay_at_final	kelly_quarter_top1	14	3	0.2143	-39.5500	9213.08	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_size_pay_at_final	kelly_quarter_top1_5pp	6	2	0.3333	4.6200	10054.91	False
with_odds_model_late_odds_size_pay_at_final	kelly_quarter_top1_10pp	2	1	0.5000	70.7300	10290.00	False
with_odds_model_real_morning_clean	flat_1pct_top1	456	125	0.2741	119.27	20845968.15	False
with_odds_model_real_morning_clean	flat_2pct_top1	456	125	0.2741	95.3700	3794708666.02	False
with_odds_model_real_morning_clean	kelly_quarter_top1	456	125	0.2741	103.56	3196863247.28	False
with_odds_model_real_morning_clean	kelly_quarter_top1_5pp	381	107	0.2808	113.37	4059427594.78	False
with_odds_model_real_morning_clean	kelly_quarter_top1_10pp	297	83	0.2795	140.20	2416662928.25	False

Sample Top-3 Picks per Race (first 30 races of 2017 val)

pred = lgb_no_odds model probability. won=1 means the pick won.

race_uid	horse_id	horse_name	win_odds	won	pred
2017-01-01_ST_1	S408	FRANCE VALOUR	8.6000	0	0.1579
2017-01-01_ST_1	P272	ROCK THE TREE	9.7000	1	0.0714
2017-01-01_ST_1	P405	TELEPHATIA	7.9000	0	0.0645
2017-01-01_ST_10	V410	SEASONS BLOOM	2.0000	1	0.2709
2017-01-01_ST_10	A050	REGENCY BO BO	10.0000	0	0.2581
2017-01-01_ST_10	V397	BEAT THE CLOCK	2.8000	0	0.2330
2017-01-01_ST_11	V153	MR STUNNING	2.0000	0	0.3085
2017-01-01_ST_11	S269	LINE SEEKER	9.8000	0	0.1438
2017-01-01_ST_11	T116	FLYING MOOCHI	21.0000	0	0.1083
2017-01-01_ST_2	V306	BUMBLE BABY	5.5000	0	0.2239
2017-01-01_ST_2	A007	BOND ELEGANCE	2.2000	0	0.1364
2017-01-01_ST_2	T422	AMAZING MOMENT	17.0000	0	0.1181
2017-01-01_ST_3	T202	WINGOLD	2.2000	1	0.1568
2017-01-01_ST_3	T393	SPICY DOUBLE	6.2000	0	0.1237
2017-01-01_ST_3	S320	FANTASTICLIFE	15.0000	0	0.0720
2017-01-01_ST_4	V316	GO BEAUTY GO	2.1000	1	0.2197
2017-01-01_ST_4	T224	TRIUMPHANT LIGHT	4.8000	0	0.1178
2017-01-01_ST_4	V258	WONDERFUL CHASER	76.0000	0	0.1103
2017-01-01_ST_5	A030	INFINITY ENDEAVOUR	3.4000	0	0.1829
2017-01-01_ST_5	V386	YOU KNOW WHO	99.0000	0	0.1097
2017-01-01_ST_5	V399	STAR OF PATCH	4.2000	1	0.1056
2017-01-01_ST_6	V016	SUPER LEADER	3.0000	0	0.1267
2017-01-01_ST_6	A040	JADE THEATRE	6.3000	0	0.1051
2017-01-01_ST_6	V338	ENDEARING	4.1000	0	0.0871
2017-01-01_ST_7	V089	TEAM SWEET	3.2000	0	0.1955
2017-01-01_ST_7	V321	SMILING CHARM	6.5000	0	0.1650
2017-01-01_ST_7	V081	HIGH VOLATILITY	11.0000	0	0.1222
2017-01-01_ST_8	S398	BLIZZARD	2.6000	1	0.2526
2017-01-01_ST_8	V110	JOYFUL TRINITY	3.2000	0	0.1904
2017-01-01_ST_8	V128	RACING SUPERNOVA	5.8000	0	0.1123
2017-01-01_ST_9	V333	UNICRON JEWELLERY	2.2000	0	0.2757
2017-01-01_ST_9	V140	FRIENDS OF NANJING	9.4000	0	0.1067
2017-01-01_ST_9	V020	JADE FORTUNE	14.0000	0	0.0987
2017-01-04_HV_1	V027	TREASURE AND GOLD	3.7000	0	0.1959
2017-01-04_HV_1	V144	TELECOM BOOM	7.8000	0	0.1354
2017-01-04_HV_1	S150	OPTIMISM	7.5000	0	0.1100
2017-01-04_HV_2	V146	GAME OF FUN	4.5000	0	0.2667
2017-01-04_HV_2	V200	GRACYDAD	2.2000	0	0.1325
2017-01-04_HV_2	T054	HAYMAKER	14.0000	0	0.1072
2017-01-04_HV_3	V387	ISAAC	1.9000	1	0.2520
2017-01-04_HV_3	S399	GRACE HEART	10.0000	0	0.1100
2017-01-04_HV_3	N443	RAY OF GOLD	19.0000	0	0.1082
2017-01-04_HV_4	T160	CASA MASTER	10.0000	1	0.1596
2017-01-04_HV_4	T282	MUTUAL JOY	12.0000	0	0.1438
2017-01-04_HV_4	T368	WISKY	2.2000	0	0.1394
2017-01-04_HV_5	T409	EASY HEDGE	2.9000	1	0.3010
2017-01-04_HV_5	T109	ANDOYAS	6.8000	0	0.0944
2017-01-04_HV_5	V254	SUNNY WIN	4.3000	0	0.0904
2017-01-04_HV_6	S422	WONDERFUL FIGHTER	4.4000	0	0.1264
2017-01-04_HV_6	T372	HARRIER JET	6.4000	0	0.1088
2017-01-04_HV_6	T405	I'M A WITNESS	3.8000	0	0.1087
2017-01-04_HV_7	V133	BASIC TRILOGY	4.4000	0	0.1943
2017-01-04_HV_7	S145	HARBOUR MASTER	11.0000	1	0.1347
2017-01-04_HV_7	T118	HORSE OF FORTUNE	4.4000	0	0.1274
2017-01-04_HV_8	S138	VARA PEARL	3.3000	0	0.1171
2017-01-04_HV_8	S447	TEN FLAMES	13.0000	0	0.1106
2017-01-04_HV_8	V019	CHEERFUL BOY	7.6000	0	0.0907
2017-01-08_ST_1	V326	GORGEOUS AGAIN	4.4000	0	0.2358
2017-01-08_ST_1	S234	DANEWIN EXPRESS	6.5000	0	0.0816
2017-01-08_ST_1	S320	FANTASTICLIFE	12.0000	0	0.0788
2017-01-08_ST_10	A090	WESTERN EXPRESS	4.1000	0	0.3664
2017-01-08_ST_10	P435	TOP ACT	99.0000	0	0.1270
2017-01-08_ST_10	V380	BEAUTY GENERATION	3.1000	1	0.1176
2017-01-08_ST_2	V025	BEAUTY LOVE	3.9000	0	0.1494
2017-01-08_ST_2	V215	ACTUARIAT	49.0000	0	0.1082
2017-01-08_ST_2	V270	MR POTENTIAL	5.2000	1	0.0934
2017-01-08_ST_3	V066	ADVENTURER	24.0000	0	0.2600
2017-01-08_ST_3	T179	AMAZING KIDS	5.8000	1	0.2199
2017-01-08_ST_3	V251	BAD BOY	2.0000	0	0.2183
2017-01-08_ST_4	V376	FLYING GODSPELL	2.1000	0	0.1542
2017-01-08_ST_4	T285	HURRICANE KID	8.2000	0	0.1493
2017-01-08_ST_4	T359	RESPECT	5.1000	0	0.1464
2017-01-08_ST_5	T105	KING BOUNTIFUL	10.0000	0	0.1961
2017-01-08_ST_5	T431	PEARL FURU	14.0000	0	0.0949
2017-01-08_ST_5	T232	SUPER FORM	8.1000	0	0.0847
2017-01-08_ST_6	V186	BIG BANG BONG	6.5000	1	0.2186
2017-01-08_ST_6	V357	TOP SCORE	6.3000	0	0.1139
2017-01-08_ST_6	V250	HINYUEN SWIFTNESS	88.0000	0	0.0836
2017-01-08_ST_7	A008	MONEY BOY	3.4000	0	0.3813
2017-01-08_ST_7	V323	SPICY KAKA	11.0000	0	0.0886
2017-01-08_ST_7	V394	GENEROUS HEART	3.1000	0	0.0834
2017-01-08_ST_8	T352	ROUNDABOUT	3.8000	1	0.2520
2017-01-08_ST_8	T189	BEAUTY KINGDOM	3.4000	0	0.1105
2017-01-08_ST_8	T348	WINSTON'S LAD	6.3000	0	0.1079
2017-01-08_ST_9	V264	ARIZONA BLIZZARD	3.8000	0	0.3018
2017-01-08_ST_9	T389	STAR OF YAN OI	2.7000	0	0.1251
2017-01-08_ST_9	T010	E-SUPER	23.0000	0	0.1211
2017-01-11_HV_1	T336	GLORY STAR	2.4000	1	0.3278
2017-01-11_HV_1	V036	PRECISIONCRAFTSMAN	20.0000	0	0.1172
2017-01-11_HV_1	V164	MY BLESSING	10.0000	0	0.0981